Category: SportsTalk

I originally envisioned this general tournament preview as a two-parter, but for the sake of my sanity (and yours, probably) I will stretch it out to three, with this post devoted to Group Stage results, and the next one devoted to the Knockout Stage (we’ll get to Team America in due course).  I’ll throw projected points in for kicks and giggles, but it doesn’t really matter.

Just some clarity:
Italicized teams were seeded for the tournament.
Bolded teams are those picked to advance.
(#) are projected points in the final group standings.

Let’s get it on.

How Group A will finish:

Brazil (9)
Mexico (6)
Croatia (3)
Cameroon (0)

At this point in time, I’d pick Brazil to win a four-team group against any three teams in the world; they’re just that good right now.  The fact that they’ve got a favorable draw and are playing on their home soil just makes them even more of a lock to advance.  Mexico and Croatia, who match up pretty evenly on paper, will battle it out till the bitter end of group play (literally, as they face each other last), but, as I said in my previous post, Mexico was forced into good form quickly with their playoff against New Zealand, and they’ll carry that into the tournament (not to mention they have a bit more overall pedigree on the world stage).  Cameroon is arguably the lowest-rated team in the entire tournament; they’ll be little more than a footnote in the end.

How Group B will finish:

Spain (6)
Netherlands (6)
Chile (6)
Australia (0)

Ahhh, the first Group of Death in our listings.  With the tournament barely a day old, we’ll be treated to a rematch of the 2010 final match between Spain and Netherlands.  Spain is the 1A to Brazil’s 1 at the moment, but despite drawing a tough group, they’re in little danger of crashing out if they play as they should; they’ve no need to rely on good fortune with the talent and teamwork they usually display.  Netherlands are a bit of an enigma of late, having crashed out ignominiously at Euro 2012, but, like Spain, they have the qualities necessary to advance.  Chile are definitely strong enough to nick a win from Spain or Netherlands, and may do just such, but I see them getting strong-armed out of advancement by their European counterparts.  Australia are quietly maintaining a respectable presence on the world stage, having qualified for three tournaments in a row, but there’s simply too much class for them to handle here.

How Group C will finish:

Colombia (7)
Japan (4)
Ivory Coast (4)
Greece (1)

C is for Colombia, that’s good enough for me.  A lot of folks aren’t really sure what to make of the Colombian team because they haven’t been to the World Cup since 1998, but being the third best team in South America is no small achievement (just ask Paraguay, who shockingly won their group and made it all the way to the quarterfinals in 2010).  If the tournament was being held anywhere else, I might be seriously tempted to pick against them, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt on their home continent.  Japan is a bit of a dark horse pick to advance, but no more so than Ivory Coast (who have yet to pan out as a sexy dark horse pick) or Greece (who people are still high on for winning Euro 2004, which now happened almost exactly ten years ago; get over it, people); and they’re actually the most experienced team in the group.  I’ll take their veteran savvy over the unfulfilled potential of the other two.

How Group D will finish:

Italy (5)
Uruguay (5)
England (5)
Costa Rica (0)

Group D for Death, and one of the hardest to figure out.  After finishing dead last in their group in 2010, Italy have very much been a team on the rise, as evidenced by their strong finishes at both Euro 2012 (runners-up) and the 2013 Confederations Cup (third place).  Uruguay are in a similar position to Mexico, having had to get things right in a hurry for their playoff against Jordan, and they’ll hold onto that baton of good form in Brazil.  With England, it’s rarely a question of talent, but more so a question of whether the talent can play together.  They haven’t shown much ability to do that against top-quality competition in quite some time, so I say they don’t advance, though I expect it’ll be a nail-biter on the last day of group play.  A more favorable draw may have seen Costa Rica with a chance to move on, but not this time with this group.

How Group E will finish:

France (7)
Switzerland (5)
Ecuador (4)
Honduras (0)

Another difficult group to pick, but more so because of unknowns than overall strength, though there’s plenty of history to go around.  Despite residing on the same continent, France and Switzerland have not played a match together since the 2006 World Cup, where they were also grouped together and both advanced (Ecuador also advanced to the last 16 in 2006, their last World Cup appearance).  Honduras held Switzerland to a goalless draw on the last day of group play in 2010, putting to waste a strong start to the tournament for the Swiss (they were the only team to defeat eventual champion Spain that summer).  France is the most experienced and likely most talented team in the group, and they’ll be looking to avenge their first round exit in 2010.  Switzerland is a gut pick as Ecuador could just as easily take the second spot, but Honduras is a clear step down from the other three teams in the group; they’ll bring up the rear here.

How Group F will finish:

Argentina (9)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (4)
Iran (2)
Nigeria (1)

After racking my brain over D and E, Group F is pretty straightforward.  Argentina is the clear (like crystal clear) favorite; no explanation needed.  Bosnia and Herzegovina are the only World Cup newcomers this year, so they’ve got the element of surprise in their favor, but also some nice talent.  They’ll advance without much trouble.  Where Iran and Nigeria finish exactly is inconsequential (Smith or Jones, whatever); they’re both also-rans.  Next!

How Group G will finish:

Germany (7)
Portugal (7)
United States (3)
Ghana (0)

Arguably the most top-heavy group of the tournament, and another contender for Group of Death, we’ll call this one Group G for Germany, who along with Portugal are among the absolute best teams we’ll see this summer.  Don’t be surprised to see them meet up again after the group stage.  It’s a cruel fate for Team USA, but at least a chance for some catharsis, as Ghana’s had their number the past two World Cups; but I say third time’s the charm, and they’ll finally take the Black Stars down.  For Ghana, it’s the end of an era. They’ve made some nice runs in the past two tournaments, but this group is too much for them to overcome.

How Group H will finish:

Belgium (7)
South Korea (6)
Russia (4)
Algeria (0)

Lastly, we’ve got Group H for Head-scratcher.  Honestly though, this group is the most inconsequential of the tournament, as the winner and runner-up will most likely have to face Germany and Portugal in the Round of 16 (and those guys just aren’t going home early).  Belgium and Russia both return after a 12 year absence, with Belgium looking like the most talented team in the group.  I’m picking South Korea as another Asian dark horse because they very quietly have one of the longest World Cup appearance streaks going at 8 in a row (only Spain, Argentina, Italy, Germany, and Brazil have longer active streaks), making them the most experienced team in the group by a wide margin.  Like Japan, I’ll take their battle-tested squad over the fresh-faced Russians and bottom-feeder Algeria.

As a disastrous campaign for my beloved Manchester United comes to a close, my thoughts turn toward the imminently approaching World Cup (aka Brasil 2014).

Being not only an American, but an unabashed supporter of Team USA, I have my biases; but I’d prefer to keep them as far away from an objective preview as I can manage, so I will devote an entirely separate post to Team America, and leave this one as part one of a general look ahead.

Overall, we appear to have the strongest tournament field since the competition expanded to 24 teams in 1982 (and expanded further to 32 teams in 1998).  The World Cup is much like March Madness in that it’s not necessarily the 32 best teams in the world; it’s the 32 that manage qualification. However, this year feels like a nearly complete exception.  There simply aren’t many true minnows in this pond, if any at all, to be honest; nor are there many sharks on the outside looking in.  And there’s most definitely not just one Group of Death this time around; there are at least three groups that can make a strong challenge for that title (Groups B, D, and G).  My point is that you shouldn’t expect too many teams to be completely outclassed this summer.  This tournament is set up to be a nail biter from start to finish.

In terms of Cup-to-Cup turnover, there aren’t a whole lot of new or unfamiliar faces this go-around.  Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only first-time qualifier in the mix, and other than them and Colombia, every other team in the field has been to a World Cup in this millennium, Including 24 from 2010 (that’s 75% for you math majors out there), and 14 of those 24 teams advanced to the knockout stages that summer.  Also, all eight teams to have ever won a World Cup (Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain) are qualified, meaning there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see a repeat winner, given that at least half of those teams are favorites to win it all.

I’ll do a complete prediction of group standings and knockout stage results in the second part of my general preview (spoiler alert: Brazil should win), but here are four tournament-related predictions (in detail):

1. A team will finish the Group Stage with 5 or more points, and still not advance.
   In the entire history of the World Cup, whether a win has been worth 2 points or 3 (as it’s been since 1994), no team has ever finished the first round with 5 or more points and not advanced to the next stage, but this year will end the magic of that number.  In 1994, there were two groups that saw three teams finish with 6 points each, but since 16 of 24 advanced to the knockout stages at that time (as opposed to 16 of 32 since 1998), the third place teams in those groups advanced.  That won’t be the case this year if a similar scenario is presented, as only group winners and runner-ups advance.  I look for this case to potentially play out especially in Group B, maybe Group D, and perhaps Group G if Team America pulls off a major upset.
2. A high-profile team will again crash out in the Group Stage, and this time it will be England.
   Particularly in the expanded tournament era, it’s a good bet that a team with a lot of big names on its team sheet will have a surprising collapse and not make it out of the first round.  2010 actually gave us two, with both France and Italy finishing dead last in groups they were favored to advance from, if not win outright.  In fairness to England, I don’t think they’ll finish last, and they got a pretty raw deal in their draw, but I just don’t see them in the last 16.  Simply put, they won’t advance, and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth on Fleet Street because of it.
3. Two teams who got second chances in qualifying will make the most of it in Brazil.
   Mexico and Uruguay both drew a lot of attention for looking as if they were on the brink of total collapse towards the end of qualifying.  While there’s no question these squads were in disarray (Mexico in particular needed a big money bailout from their American neighbors to stay afloat), they certainly made the most of their parachutes in the form of the intercontinental playoffs, with Mexico drubbing New Zealand and Uruguay taking down Jordan in similarly dominating fashion.  Some may foresee these teams falling victim to their own drama next month in Brazil, but I think having to get things right in a hurry for their playoffs was the best medicine for their ills.  I say both of these teams advance out of their groups, with Uruguay making to quarterfinals.
4. After being center stage four years ago, Africa will be almost invisible this summer.
   I have a problem in general with CAF getting 5 undisputed berths in the World Cup when their teams don’t perform as well in the tournament as teams from CONCACAF or AFC (who get 3+1 and 4+1 berths, respectively), but this isn’t about that.  African teams just didn’t get many favorable matchups for this year’s tournament, and most will be the punching bags of their groups.  Nigeria and Ivory Coast have decent chances to move on if things go their way, but they’re both sketchy bets at best.  Ivory Coast has been a sexy dark horse pick for the past two tournaments, but hasn’t proven anything despite their “Golden Generation”; and Nigeria is a long way off from their glory days of the 1990s.  In short, don’t expect any African teams in the last 16.