SportsTalk: 2014 World Cup Preview – Part 1

As a disastrous campaign for my beloved Manchester United comes to a close, my thoughts turn toward the imminently approaching World Cup (aka Brasil 2014).

Being not only an American, but an unabashed supporter of Team USA, I have my biases; but I’d prefer to keep them as far away from an objective preview as I can manage, so I will devote an entirely separate post to Team America, and leave this one as part one of a general look ahead.

Overall, we appear to have the strongest tournament field since the competition expanded to 24 teams in 1982 (and expanded further to 32 teams in 1998).  The World Cup is much like March Madness in that it’s not necessarily the 32 best teams in the world; it’s the 32 that manage qualification. However, this year feels like a nearly complete exception.  There simply aren’t many true minnows in this pond, if any at all, to be honest; nor are there many sharks on the outside looking in.  And there’s most definitely not just one Group of Death this time around; there are at least three groups that can make a strong challenge for that title (Groups B, D, and G).  My point is that you shouldn’t expect too many teams to be completely outclassed this summer.  This tournament is set up to be a nail biter from start to finish.

In terms of Cup-to-Cup turnover, there aren’t a whole lot of new or unfamiliar faces this go-around.  Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only first-time qualifier in the mix, and other than them and Colombia, every other team in the field has been to a World Cup in this millennium, Including 24 from 2010 (that’s 75% for you math majors out there), and 14 of those 24 teams advanced to the knockout stages that summer.  Also, all eight teams to have ever won a World Cup (Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain) are qualified, meaning there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see a repeat winner, given that at least half of those teams are favorites to win it all.

I’ll do a complete prediction of group standings and knockout stage results in the second part of my general preview (spoiler alert: Brazil should win), but here are four tournament-related predictions (in detail):

  1. A team will finish the Group Stage with 5 or more points, and still not advance.
    In the entire history of the World Cup, whether a win has been worth 2 points or 3 (as it’s been since 1994), no team has ever finished the first round with 5 or more points and not advanced to the next stage, but this year will end the magic of that number.  In 1994, there were two groups that saw three teams finish with 6 points each, but since 16 of 24 advanced to the knockout stages at that time (as opposed to 16 of 32 since 1998), the third place teams in those groups advanced.  That won’t be the case this year if a similar scenario is presented, as only group winners and runner-ups advance.  I look for this case to potentially play out especially in Group B, maybe Group D, and perhaps Group G if Team America pulls off a major upset.
  2. A high-profile team will again crash out in the Group Stage, and this time it will be England.
    Particularly in the expanded tournament era, it’s a good bet that a team with a lot of big names on its team sheet will have a surprising collapse and not make it out of the first round.  2010 actually gave us two, with both France and Italy finishing dead last in groups they were favored to advance from, if not win outright.  In fairness to England, I don’t think they’ll finish last, and they got a pretty raw deal in their draw, but I just don’t see them in the last 16.  Simply put, they won’t advance, and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth on Fleet Street because of it.
  3. Two teams who got second chances in qualifying will make the most of it in Brazil.
    Mexico and Uruguay both drew a lot of attention for looking as if they were on the brink of total collapse towards the end of qualifying.  While there’s no question these squads were in disarray (Mexico in particular needed a big money bailout from their American neighbors to stay afloat), they certainly made the most of their parachutes in the form of the intercontinental playoffs, with Mexico drubbing New Zealand and Uruguay taking down Jordan in similarly dominating fashion.  Some may foresee these teams falling victim to their own drama next month in Brazil, but I think having to get things right in a hurry for their playoffs was the best medicine for their ills.  I say both of these teams advance out of their groups, with Uruguay making to quarterfinals.
  4. After being center stage four years ago, Africa will be almost invisible this summer.
    I have a problem in general with CAF getting 5 undisputed berths in the World Cup when their teams don’t perform as well in the tournament as teams from CONCACAF or AFC (who get 3+1 and 4+1 berths, respectively), but this isn’t about that.  African teams just didn’t get many favorable matchups for this year’s tournament, and most will be the punching bags of their groups.  Nigeria and Ivory Coast have decent chances to move on if things go their way, but they’re both sketchy bets at best.  Ivory Coast has been a sexy dark horse pick for the past two tournaments, but hasn’t proven anything despite their “Golden Generation”; and Nigeria is a long way off from their glory days of the 1990s.  In short, don’t expect any African teams in the last 16.

Movie Review: ‘The Monuments Men’ – It Just Doesn’t Work

 

Directed by George Clooney
Written by George Clooney & Grant Heslov, based on the book by Robert M. Edsel and Bret Witter
Cast: George Clooney, Matt Damon, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, Hugh Bonneville, Bob Balaban, Sam Hazeldine
Soundtrack: Alexandre Desplat

You’re probably wondering why I’m choosing to talk about a film that isn’t a box office success, critical hit, or, most importantly, a new release, but this whole talking about whatever thing has to start somewhere, and I have strong opinions about this particular movie, so here we go.

First off, for the record, as a film enthusiast and someone with a history degree, I really wanted to like this movie, so it pained me dearly at the close of the film to have to admit that it just wasn’t very good, and that I wouldn’t recommend it to general audiences.

But, before I get too far in my criticism, I do want to praise this movie for what it does well, and that comes especially in the visual department.  First of all, as far as I can tell, Monuments Men was shot on actual film, rather than digitally.  I never imagined I’d ever be giving a movie credit for such a choice, but these days it seems as if shooting on film is viewed by most major studios as going above and beyond, which I can understand, as digital technology is just so convenient for so many reasons, not the least of which being cost; but no matter how far digital cameras have come, there are just certain projects that should be shot on actual film, period pieces especially.

(Just don’t tell that to Michael Mann.  As much as I respect the guy for movies like Heat and Collateral, I’ll never understand his choice to not only shoot Public Enemies digitally, but to make that choice so obvious.  I mean, would he have shot Last of the Mohicans digitally if he’d had the choice?  I hope not.  But I digress.)

So, from a cinematic standpoint, Monuments Men looks great: the depth, the color, etc.  And what enhances this is the attention to detail paid in terms of the costumes, props, vehicles, and visual effects.  I don’t know how much CGI was used in the film, but it certainly doesn’t feel like all that much, and it’s used effectively and appropriately.  Frankly, I think the filmmakers made every effort to carry on without it as much as they physically could, and I commend them for that as well.

Unfortunately, other than looking great and feeling real in the visual sense, there’s not much else that Monuments Men gets right.  The crux of the problem is a general lack of focus in the writing and directing, and that comes down primarily on George Clooney’s shoulders.  I understand this was a passion project for him, and it’s hard to give up control of something when it’s your baby, but I think he did the movie a disservice by taking on too much responsibility.

I haven’t read the book the film is based on, so I can’t comment on the quality of the adaptation, but from a creative perspective, the movie is trying to be too many things at once (and I think it assumes the audience has read the book).  It wants to be an Old Hollywood light-hearted propaganda film, while also being a by-the-book historical film, while also being a poignant commentary on the nature of war and the importance of art in our lives, and so on and so forth, to the point that the varying concepts simply collapse under their own weight, and you’re left with a flat-as-a-pancake story and characters, with very little to connect to from an audience perspective.

To put it another way, one of the biggest areas where Monuments Men fails is in the emotions.  Despite a great cast, we’re not given enough time or reason to connect with the characters; so when each actor gets their individual moment to shine, none of the scenes move us, and so these moments stand in service of nothing.

In comparison, I think of a movie like Memphis Belle.  There are ten men in the crew of the titular aircraft, which means there are ten men for us to care about, which can be a stretch for an audience if not handled correctly, but in Memphis Belle we’re given enough time with and information about the characters: where they come from, their personalities, and their dreams for after the war.  So, when things get dramatic, we actually feel it as an audience because we know and care about these guys.

This is where choosing someone else to direct Monuments Men would have solved a lot of problems and given us a better film.  Frankly, I think Steven Soderbergh would have been the perfect choice.  He’s worked with George Clooney many times before, but more importantly I think he would have established one clear and consistent tone for the film, whether more straight-laced and objective, like Contagion, or a more light-hearted ensemble piece, like the Ocean’s 1X series; he certainly wouldn’t have let the movie wander around trying to be everything at once.

Alternatively, perhaps Monuments Men would have worked better as a mini-series than as a two hour movie.  As I said, I haven’t read the book, but I know that certain material just doesn’t work when condensed down to such a degree (for example: most of John Le Carre’s novels).  More screen time certainly would have helped to solve the issues of shallow characterization and a rushed conclusion.   And as the story focuses far more on saving art as opposed to taking lives in combat, a Monuments Men miniseries could have run on an over-the-air network without concern of having to water down the violence for regular television.  I can’t imagine many executives foresaw this movie doing much business overseas, so from a financial perspective I think a miniseries would have made as much sense as a feature film, if not more.

In the end, The Monuments Men is yet another movie that leaves us with the question of what might have been had different choices been made along the way.  I can’t recommend it to general audiences because it’s not very good, and the average person will probably find themselves bored while watching it.  But, if you’re into history like I am, or you’ve read the book and you’re curious about it, I’d recommend it as a rental.  At the very least, I can say Monuments Men is not another cynical Hollywood cash grab, and though it fails in many regards, it at least tries before getting there.

★★☆☆☆
(★★½ if you’re into History)