As a disastrous campaign for my beloved Manchester United comes to a close, my thoughts turn toward the imminently approaching World Cup (aka Brasil 2014).
Being not only an American, but an unabashed supporter of Team USA, I have my biases; but I’d prefer to keep them as far away from an objective preview as I can manage, so I will devote an entirely separate post to Team America, and leave this one as part one of a general look ahead.
Overall, we appear to have the strongest tournament field since the competition expanded to 24 teams in 1982 (and expanded further to 32 teams in 1998). The World Cup is much like March Madness in that it’s not necessarily the 32 best teams in the world; it’s the 32 that manage qualification. However, this year feels like a nearly complete exception. There simply aren’t many true minnows in this pond, if any at all, to be honest; nor are there many sharks on the outside looking in. And there’s most definitely not just one Group of Death this time around; there are at least three groups that can make a strong challenge for that title (Groups B, D, and G). My point is that you shouldn’t expect too many teams to be completely outclassed this summer. This tournament is set up to be a nail biter from start to finish.
In terms of Cup-to-Cup turnover, there aren’t a whole lot of new or unfamiliar faces this go-around. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only first-time qualifier in the mix, and other than them and Colombia, every other team in the field has been to a World Cup in this millennium, Including 24 from 2010 (that’s 75% for you math majors out there), and 14 of those 24 teams advanced to the knockout stages that summer. Also, all eight teams to have ever won a World Cup (Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain) are qualified, meaning there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see a repeat winner, given that at least half of those teams are favorites to win it all.
I’ll do a complete prediction of group standings and knockout stage results in the second part of my general preview (spoiler alert: Brazil should win), but here are four tournament-related predictions (in detail):
- A team will finish the Group Stage with 5 or more points, and still not advance.
In the entire history of the World Cup, whether a win has been worth 2 points or 3 (as it’s been since 1994), no team has ever finished the first round with 5 or more points and not advanced to the next stage, but this year will end the magic of that number. In 1994, there were two groups that saw three teams finish with 6 points each, but since 16 of 24 advanced to the knockout stages at that time (as opposed to 16 of 32 since 1998), the third place teams in those groups advanced. That won’t be the case this year if a similar scenario is presented, as only group winners and runner-ups advance. I look for this case to potentially play out especially in Group B, maybe Group D, and perhaps Group G if Team America pulls off a major upset. - A high-profile team will again crash out in the Group Stage, and this time it will be England.
Particularly in the expanded tournament era, it’s a good bet that a team with a lot of big names on its team sheet will have a surprising collapse and not make it out of the first round. 2010 actually gave us two, with both France and Italy finishing dead last in groups they were favored to advance from, if not win outright. In fairness to England, I don’t think they’ll finish last, and they got a pretty raw deal in their draw, but I just don’t see them in the last 16. Simply put, they won’t advance, and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth on Fleet Street because of it. - Two teams who got second chances in qualifying will make the most of it in Brazil.
Mexico and Uruguay both drew a lot of attention for looking as if they were on the brink of total collapse towards the end of qualifying. While there’s no question these squads were in disarray (Mexico in particular needed a big money bailout from their American neighbors to stay afloat), they certainly made the most of their parachutes in the form of the intercontinental playoffs, with Mexico drubbing New Zealand and Uruguay taking down Jordan in similarly dominating fashion. Some may foresee these teams falling victim to their own drama next month in Brazil, but I think having to get things right in a hurry for their playoffs was the best medicine for their ills. I say both of these teams advance out of their groups, with Uruguay making to quarterfinals. - After being center stage four years ago, Africa will be almost invisible this summer.
I have a problem in general with CAF getting 5 undisputed berths in the World Cup when their teams don’t perform as well in the tournament as teams from CONCACAF or AFC (who get 3+1 and 4+1 berths, respectively), but this isn’t about that. African teams just didn’t get many favorable matchups for this year’s tournament, and most will be the punching bags of their groups. Nigeria and Ivory Coast have decent chances to move on if things go their way, but they’re both sketchy bets at best. Ivory Coast has been a sexy dark horse pick for the past two tournaments, but hasn’t proven anything despite their “Golden Generation”; and Nigeria is a long way off from their glory days of the 1990s. In short, don’t expect any African teams in the last 16.